Election latest: Sunak questioned on 'nightmare' poll - as Tories employ 'risky' strategy (2024)

Thanks for joining us on another packed day in the election campaign.

Nigel Farage said he could be the official "voice of opposition" to Labour after a poll showed Reform UK pulling slightly ahead of the Conservatives - and said his party could get more than six million votes.

He also demandedto be involved in a leaders' general election event next week.

At the G7 summit in Italy, Rishi Sunak brushed off the YouGov poll result and said a vote for Reform would "give a blank cheque to Labour".

Elsewhere, the parliamentary watchdog said it was "satisfied" that Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross didn't break expenses rules after "reviewing" media reports that he claimed for journeys to his job as a football assistant referee.

And our political editor Beth Rigbylifted the lid on what it was like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) Sky News' big leaders event on Wednesday night.

We are are now pausing coverage for the evening. Join us on the campaign trail again in the morning. Goodnight!

Asked if he'll be voting Tory on 4 July, former justice secretary David Gauke says he is "considering his options".

He says it wouldn't benefit the country to have a "massive" Labour majority.

He adds that he'd be "minded" to vote Conservative if the candidate near him was "someone who would stand up to Nigel Farage" and stop the Tories from becoming a "fully fledged obvious party of the right".

"But... I think there is going to be a big battle in the Conservative Party at the end of this process, as to whether they open the door to Nigel Farage," he says.

Earlier today we sat down withDavid Gauke, who previously served as justice secretary under Theresa May.

Asked how the Conservative election campaign is going, Mr Gauke said "it's not going at all" if the polls are anything to go by.

He said the plan would have been to "substantially" reduce Labour's lead over the past few weeks - but added "there's no sign of that".

Mr Gauke pointed to "difficulty" over Rishi Sunak's D-Day disaster, but he also said the party's plan to "squeeze the support of Reform hasn't worked".

Questioned about the YouGov poll which shows Reform edging ahead of the Tories, the former politician said there's "real concernabout the future of centre right politics as a consequence of the rise of Nigel Farage".

He said the rise of Reform will "help Labour win a bigger majority".

But he added that it'll also pile pressure on the Conservatives "in a way that... [it's] bad news for the country if what we end up with in British politics is a Labour Party versus essentially a populist party of the right that jettisons any attempt to be a mainstream centre right party".

Conservatives 'not deserving of public trust'

Mr Gauke said the "problems" the Tories are facing are a "consequence of moving... essentially to the right of the party in choosing Boris Johnson and then... Liz Truss".

He said the party is "neither competent nor deserving of the trust of the British public".

He added that Mr Sunak is partly a "victim of the circ*mstances he has inherited".

Alison McGovern is next questioned on a recent comment by economists that Labour and the Conservatives are involved in a "conspiracy of silence" with people over the state of public finances.

The shadow employment minister says it's "helpful" for parties' plans to be "scrutinised" - but suggests the comment by the Institute for Fiscal Studies is based on "what would happen if we don't get that growth in our economy".

She says Labour has a "broader plan for growth" which will be supported by investing in public services.

Asked how Labour can be trusted in the face of the IFS's analysis, Ms McGovern says: "I welcome the scrutiny, but I would say we've got a plan that is both setting out immediate first steps and also a longer term mission to change our economy and make it more sustainable.

"It's the combination of those two things that will make sure we don't have any return to austerity," she says.

Next up is shadow employment ministerAlison McGovern, who is discussing the plans for mental health which Labour has been campaigning on today.

Ms McGovern says people have had a "really hard time" in recent years and mental health support needs to be expanded.

She says it isn't just about having sufficient public services, but is about Labour's plan for growth as well, noting that too many people are unable to work or "do the kind of work that they really want to".

"That's holding back our economy too," she says.

Host Ali Fortescue puts to the shadow minister that Labour is pinning a lot of its hopes on economic growth - and asks what will happen if it's not achieved.

Ms McGovern says the country has seen over the past 14 years of Conservative rule "what can happen if the economy doesn't grow".

But pressed on what Labour's plans are, she says the party has set out where it can "bring money in reasonably" through "tax that should be collected" - and has laid out where it can invest in public services.

"We've got a plan for growth that will help our economy move on," she says.

We're bringing you more from Rishi Sunak's news conference at the G7 summit now, as the PM is being asked about yesterday's YouGov poll.

The poll - described by our political correspondent Rob Powell as a "nightmare" for the Tories - put Reform ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.

Asked why Tory voters appear to be turning to Reform, Mr Sunak says: "I think we're only halfway through this campaign and the Conservative Party and me are going to fight for every single vote until the last day.

"And you know, what you saw this week was actually an important moment in the campaign because the only poll that matters is the one on July 4.

"What you did see this week is the two leading parties put out their manifestos for the future of our country, and there's a very clear choice."

He adds that if the poll were replicated on election day, this would be "handing a blank cheque to Keir Starmer to increase people's taxes on their home, their car, their job, their pension, their house, that's what it will do".

"So I'm going to continue fighting very hard to make sure everyone understands the choice that's ahead of them," he says.

First up on the Politics Hub show is former deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine.

Asked how he thinks the election campaign is going for the Conservatives, he first says the party has presided over an "extraordinarily difficult period of economic history".

He says the Tories have done some "very remarkable and impressive things" but concedes that people now feel "frustrated" and want "change".

"The real judgement you've got to make in this election is what do you mean by change?" he says.

Lord Heseltine says the "issue at the heart of the election" is "people".

He points to Nigel Farage as someone he believes is "prepared to exploit that human anxiety about anyone who's different".

"You can whip up all sorts of horrendous emotions... that's what Nigel Farage is a past master at doing. The only consequence of what he is doing is that you will have a bigger Labour majority," he says.

Tories 'can't fester racism and nationalism'

Lord Heseltine says he would be "horrified" if Mr Farage were to be welcomed into the Conservative Party.

He says that if the Tories were to lose the election, their "return to power will be led from the centre ground".

"Certainly it will not happen by festering those most basic human instincts of racism and and nationalism," he says.

Asked whether he feels heartbroken at what's happened to the party, Lord Heseltine says he can't help but "feel sad" after decades of service.

"This is not the end of the Conservative Party, they will be back," he says.

Speaking on the Politics Hub programme, our correspondent Rob Powell says the Conservatives are facing a "nightmare".

A YouGov poll yesterday put Reform ahead of the Tories for the first time - something that will have sparked fear among the Conservative ranks.

Rob says there are caveats that apply: this is just one poll, and parties like Reform tend to do better in polling than voting.

But he says the Conservatives "started this campaign talking about narrowing the gap with Labour" and "we're now talking about having to leapfrog over Reform to even get to Labour".

The Tories have also started pushing a message about stopping a Labour "super majority".

While this is a "subtle change", Rob says, he thinks it is a "risky strategy".

"If you're sending out messages that you might be about to lose, that can suppress turnout," he says.

Rishi Sunak is asked how quickly decisions made by G7 leaders on illegal migration will make a difference to arrivals into the UK.

He's also asked if it's "too late" to deal with the "threat" posed by Reform UK.

Mr Sunak replies that it's the "first time" the summit has had a "dedicated discussion on migration".

"The fact that the G7 is even discussing migration is itself something of note," he says.

The prime minister says leaders have agreed to target illegal gangs and "cooperate and work together" to share intelligence.

He does not respond to the part of the question asking about Reform.

We are halfway through the campaign, and something pretty extraordinary has happened.

Reform are ahead of the Conservatives.

It's just one You Gov poll - others give the Conservatives a bigger lead on Reform.

But it does matter. It matters because it gives Nigel Farage's words weight when he says his party is now the opposition to Labour.

It matters because it comes after the Conservative manifesto - a moment where parties would usually see a poll bounce. 72-pages the PM threw everything at to try to shift the dial.

Number 10 have got to be wondering what leavers are left to pull?

And what comes next matters not just for the outcome of this election, but for the future of the Conservative Party and centre right British politics.